Gold Technical Analysis – Tariffs are back on the menu

Fundamental Overview

Gold jumped to yet another all-time high today following renewed tariffs fears. In fact, over the weekend, Trump talked about imposing a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium on all countries on Monday and that he will announce reciprocal tariffs on Tuesday or Wednesday.

This is giving gold a boost not only from a safe haven perspective but also because of the drop in real yields as inflation expectations rise faster than nominal yields.

Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that gold extended the rally into yet another all-time high today. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the 2790 level, while the sellers will look for a break below the level to start targeting the 2600 level next.

Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the momentum became even stronger recently as the price got further away from the trendline. If we get a deeper pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline again with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 2600 level next.

Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price is now close to the upper bound of the average daily range for today. We might either get some consolidation here or a pullback. On an intraday basis, if the price were to break below the 2882 level, we can expect the sellers to extend the pullback into the minor upward trendline where the buyers will have their first dip-buying opportunity. If the price were to break below the minor trendline, then we will likely get a deeper pullback into the major trendline.

Upcoming Catalysts

Tomorrow, we have Fed Chair Powell speaking. On Wednesday, we get the US CPI report. On Thursday, we have the US PPI and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude with the US Retail Sales data.

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