NY Fed March one-year inflation expectations rise to 3.6% from 3.1%

This survey was done before 'Liberation Day'

• 3-year inflation unchanged at 3%
• 5-year inflation down to 2.9% from 3.0%
• Households more pessimistic about jobs and future earnings
• Found accelerating food and rent expected
• Households more downbeat on finances and credit access
• Share of households seeing worse financial situation highest since Oct 2023
• Expectations for stocks to rise is at lowest since June 2022
• Median household spending growth expectations declined by 0.1 percentage point to 4.9%
• Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—jumped 4.6 percentage points to 44.0%, the highest reading since April 2020

There is a clear pattern of worsening sentiment across many indicators but little evidence of it bleeding into hard economic data, though that often takes time.