The Daily Telegraph is reporting that US Pres. Trump is looking for payback from supporting Ukraine vs Russia:

  • Trump’s $500B Demand on Ukraine: Trump has proposed a $500 billion "payback" from Ukraine, covering minerals, oil, gas, ports, and infrastructure, effectively granting the U.S. near-total economic control over Ukraine's resources. A draft agreement, leaked from Kyiv, suggests 50% of revenues and new resource licenses would go to the U.S., along with a right of first refusal on exports.

  • Kyiv's Reaction & Concerns: The sweeping economic demands have caused panic in Ukraine, as they resemble war reparations imposed on defeated nations, surpassing those from WWII's post-Versailles agreements. Ukrainian officials, while open to deals on rare earth minerals, were reportedly caught off guard by the harsh and binding nature of the contract.

  • Strategic & Political Ramifications: Trump argues the U.S. has already spent $300B on Ukraine, though official numbers suggest $175B, with much spent domestically. He has warned Ukraine to accept the deal or risk being abandoned to Russia. Some see the move as a political ploy to reframe Ukraine as a financial asset rather than a burden, potentially ensuring future U.S. commitment.

  • Feasibility of Ukraine’s Resource Wealth: While Ukraine is rich in lithium, rare earths, and shale gas, its actual economic potential is overestimated. Lithium prices have crashed, alternative battery technologies are emerging, and Ukraine’s shale fields face high extraction costs, limiting their strategic value.

  • Ukraine’s Dilemma: Facing both Russian aggression and U.S. economic pressure, Zelensky is in a precarious position. With limited ability to meet Trump’s financial demands, he must choose between economic subjugation by an ally or continued military threats from Russia.

Sen. Lindsey Graham Munich at the Security Conference in Munich over the weekend that Ukraine should accept the deal saying: “If we sign this minerals agreement, Putin is screwed, because Trump will defend the deal,”

The revenue hunt is global and in full-court press mode.

Trump also wants Europe to foot the bill for their own defense which could be beneficial to US defense contractors. Meanwhile, at the same time US defense will go through its own rethink on defense spending.

His opening gambit to Russia and China is for a full de-nuclearization, arguing that the nations already have enough nuclear arsenal to destroy each other. Why spend more when the money can be used for other more important things.

There are big balls in the air, but the Trump theme will be "payback time".

Source: Forex Live