Gold Technical Analysis – Rangebound price action as we await the first trade deal

Fundamental Overview

Gold got stuck in a range recently as the market is now waiting for the details of the first trade deal, which is said to be announced this week or the next. We reached an inflection point last week following some very positive Trump’s comments and as the stagflationary risk kept on being priced out, gold continued to edge lower.

The stagflationary pricing got gold to such high prices, and as we start to price out that risk, it’s normal to see a correction, especially considering that “long gold” has been the most crowded trade.

In the bigger picture, gold remains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed easing. But in the short-term more positive news on the tariffs front should see more downside for gold as the market readjusts to new conditions.

Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that gold got stuck in a consolidation around the 3300 level as the market awaits more info on the first trade deal. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the previous high at 3167 to position for further upside, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the major trendline around the 3100 level.

Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the range between the 3258 support and the 3367 resistance. The market participants will continue to play the range until we get a breakout on either side.

Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will step in around the support and increase the bullish bets on the break of the resistance, while the sellers will pile in around the resistance and increase the bearish bets on the break of the support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we have the US Job Openings data and the US Consumer Confidence report but the focus will be on Bessent’s and Lutnick’s remarks. Tomorrow, we have the US ADP, the US Q1 GDP, the US PCE and the US Employment Cost Index. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. As a reminder, the market is focused on tariff related news at the moment, so the data is not as market-moving as it used to be in the past months.