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Fed's Musalem : Expect growth this year lower than trend
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said on Friday that he expects the economic growth this year to be lower than the trend, per Reuters.
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US 30-year yields are on track for their largest weekly rise since 1982
A whopping 55 basis point rise
Bonds
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US yields blow up again, this time right across the curve
Inflation worries or something else?
Bonds
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Fed’s Musalem: There is more work to do on inflation
St.
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CentralBanks
Inflation
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DollarIndex
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US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index drops to 50.8 in April vs. 54.5 expected
Consumer confidence in the United States (US) continued to deteriorate in April, with the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 50.8 in the flash estimate from 57 in March. This reading came in worse than the market expectation of 54.5.
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UMich April prelim consumer sentiment 50.8 vs 54.5 expected
US April prelim UMich consumer sentiment
USD
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UMich April preliminary consumer sentiment coming up next
What to watch for
USD
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Hours before the latest China tariffs the Trump admin told them to request a Xi-Trump call
Report from CNN
Politics
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USD safe haven status under pressure – Rabobank
The US dollar's role as a global safe haven is being challenged amid rising budget deficits and trade tensions.
Technical Analysis
Banks
DollarIndex
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Fed’s Collins: The Fed will need to hold steady for longer
During an interview with Yahoo Finance on Friday, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins noted that even amidst intense pressure, financial markets seem to be weathering the storm.
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CentralBanks
InterestRate
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Something that should worry US policymakers: The reaction function is now to sell bonds
This has happened twice in a row
Bonds
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GBP advance lags core peers – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is firmer on the day but has struggled to keep up with its core G10 peers over the week, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Technical Analysis
Banks
GBPUSD
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EUR surges to 1.14 before consolidating – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) tested the upper 1.08s Monday and traded to a three-year high above 1.14 earlier. It is notable that the EUR surge is happening against a backdrop of widening EZ/US spreads which would ordinarily be a negative factor for the EUR, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD
Banks
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USD/JPY drops to seven-month lows near 142.00
USD/JPY adds to the pessimism seen in the latter part of the week and recedes to the 142.00 region on Friday, an area last seen in late September.
Currencies
Fed
USDJPY
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CAD grinds higher versus a weaker USD – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is getting pulled along with the broader sell-off in the USD and is notching up another decent weekly gain—its fourth on the trot and the largest since late 2022.
Banks
USDCAD
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BOC
Canada
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Fed's Collins: We came into first quarter with solid economic conditions
Fed's Collins speaking
USD
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USD slide extends to a three-year low – Scotiabank
'Transition problems' with US Tariffs continue. The US Dollar (USD) is getting trashed.
Technical Analysis
Fed
Banks
DollarIndex
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US annual PPI inflation softens to 2.7% in March vs. 3.3% expected
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in the US rose 2.7% on a yearly basis in March, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed the 3.2% increase recorded in February and came in below the market expectation of 3.3%.
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Macroeconomics
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US Dollar pares losses, DXY holding near three-year lows
The US Dollar Index (DXY) bounced from a fresh three-year low of 99.02 achieved on Friday amid escalating tensions between China and the United States (US). The index currently hovers around 99.70, sharply down for a second consecutive day.
Sentiment
TradeWar
Inflation
DollarIndex
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ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar woes continue, China hits back on tariffs
Forex news from the European morning session on Apr 11, 2025
Session wrap
Wrap Europe
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Fed's Kashkari: Not seeing evidence yet that long-run inflation expectations are rising
In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said that their job is to make sure that inflation expectations don't rise, per Reuters.
Fed
CentralBanks
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Fed's Kashkari: Our job is to make sure inflation expectations don't rise
Fed's Kashkari speaking to CNBC
USD
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US energy secretary says tariffs escalation is "home territory" for Trump
The full quote from Chris Wright
market overview
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US Energy Secretary Wright: China tariff hike is start of negotiation
Comments from US Energy Secretary, Chris Wright
USD
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USD/CHF bounces off lows near the 0.8100 zone, tariffs eyed
On Friday, Beijing dramatically ramped up tariffs on US imports to 125%, striking back at President Trump's move to hike duties on Chinese goods to 145%. This countermeasure has ramped up the tension in a trade war that now threatens to upend global supply chains.
Currencies
TradeWar
Fed
Inflation
USDCHF
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Platinum and Palladium hit by tariff conflict, downward revision of price forecasts – Commerzbank
The tariff conflict triggered by US President Trump and the resulting increase in risk aversion also put pressure on the Platinum and Palladium prices.
Metals
Platinum
Palladium
Banks
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Gold ETFs post strong inflows in March and the first quarter – Commerzbank
The March data on gold ETFs published by the World Gold Council this week showed a continued high buying interest among ETF investors, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
XAUUSD
Metals
Gold
Banks
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EIA lowers forecast for global oil demand and US oil production – Commerzbank
Oversupply fears push oil price outlook lower
Oil
Energy
Brent
Banks
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Large discrepancies between surveys on OPEC production in March – Commerzbank
The OPEC production surveys by Reuters and Bloomberg again showed a considerable discrepancy for March, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
Oil
OPEC
Energy
Banks
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USD/CNH: Any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 7.2430 – UOB Group
Scope for US Dollar (USD) to continue to weaken vs Chinese Yuan (CNH); any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 7.2430.
Technical Analysis
USDCNH
Banks
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Russia exports less oil at lower prices – Commerzbank
The price of Russian ESPO crude fell below $60 per barrel for the first time at the beginning of the week, while the price of Urals fell towards $50 per barrel, the lowest price level since March 2023, according to Reuters, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
Oil
Energy
RussianFederation
Banks
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USD/JPY: Further USD weakness is not ruled out – UOB Group
While deeply oversold, further USD weakness is not ruled out; next support level is at 142.50. In the longer run, renewed momentum suggests USD is likely to continue to decline; mid-term support levels are at 142.50 and 139.55, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Technical Analysis
USDJPY
Banks
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White house pressure threatens US Dollar stability – Commerzbank
Despite the current turbulence in the US dollar, we see short-term recovery potential for the US currency.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD
Fed
Banks
DollarIndex
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NZD/USD: A move to 0.5855 can be expected – UOB Group
Further NZD strength is not ruled out, but it may not be able to maintain a foothold above 0.5785. In the longer run, upward momentum has increased, but NZD must first close above 0.5785 before a move to 0.5855 can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Technical Analysis
Banks
NZDUSD
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US: China’s manufacturing power worries the US – Commerzbank
The US government has once again backtracked and rescinded the counter-tariffs it only introduced the day before yesterday.
China
TradeWar
UnitedStates
Banks
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Markets fade the latest China retaliation, at least for now
Some calmer heads are seen for the time being
market overview
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AUD/USD: Likely to strengthen further – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to strengthen further, but the major resistance at 0.6290 still seems to be out of reach. In the longer run, for the time being, AUD is expected to trade in a 0.6000/0.6290 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Technical Analysis
Banks
AUDUSD
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More from ECB's Lagarde: Joint fiscal capacity is an appropriate response to shocks
More comments from ECB's President, Christine Lagarde
EUR
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EUR/USD remains well bid around 1.1350 ahead of US PPI
The US Dollar (USD) took another hit at the end of the week, after China retaliated with 125% tariffs on imports of US goods starting as soon as on April 12.
Currencies
EURUSD
Fed
Majors
Inflation
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