UK consumer spending resilient in March despite tariff fears and rising business concerns

British consumer spending showed modest growth in March. There do seem to be signs of strain beginning to emerge beneath the surface.

British Retail Consortium (BRC) data:

• total retail sales rose 1.1% year-on-year in March, matching February’s pace
• like-for-like sales also held steady at 0.9%

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson highlighted the resilience of both food and non-food categories, suggesting a quiet strengthening in consumer appetite despite geopolitical pressures.

In contrast, Barclays’ broader measure of UK consumer spending — which includes debit and credit card transactions — painted a more subdued picture:

• spending rose just 0.5% year-on-year, down from 1.0% in February and falling short of inflation
• supermarket sales dropped 2.6%, although warmer weather did support spending at garden centres and specialty food retailers

Barclays chief UK economist Jack Meaning warned of a possible softening in consumer activity ahead.

• “We expect spending to remain muted through mid-2025, before gradually recovering into 2026 as interest rate cuts and stabilising conditions take hold”