Dalio on Trump tariff turmoil - warns it's 'too late'

Ray Dalio isn’t mincing words: the world is past the point of avoiding a historic realignment in trade, capital markets, and geopolitics.

In a stark warning, the Bridgewater founder said hopes for a negotiated fix to the U.S.-led tariff battles are "naive." The shift away from U.S.-centric trade and investment flows is already happening — and it’s happening fast.

“Exporters, importers, producers, and investors are realizing that regardless of what happens with tariffs, reduced interdependence with the U.S. is now a reality that must be planned for,” Dalio wrote. American and Chinese businesses are scrambling to redraw supply chains and investment plans, but the pullback from the U.S. extends well beyond China. Across the world, companies and governments are repositioning themselves for an era of fractured globalization.

The bigger worry: America’s role as the world’s consumer of last resort — and biggest issuer of debt — is looking increasingly unsustainable. Dalio warns that relying on the U.S. to keep buying and borrowing, and trusting that dollar debt will hold its value, is a dangerous assumption. Countries are beginning to plan for a future where the dollar may not be the ultimate safe haven.

Put simply:

• Deglobalization is here.

• Massive trade and capital imbalances are no longer sustainable.

• The U.S. risks being sidelined as new global networks form without it.

Dalio says the signs are everywhere: monetary systems, domestic politics, and international alliances are all buckling under the weight of bad fundamentals. Today’s disruptions, he argues, look a lot like the early stages of previous historical collapses.

There’s still a chance to manage the transition well — but it would require calm, coordinated action that so far has been sorely lacking. Dalio has floated solutions, like his "3-Part, 3-Percent" fiscal plan outlined in his new book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, but he doubts policymakers will act in time.

"The window for smart planning is closing," Dalio said. "It’s time for investors and decision-makers to focus on the structural shifts — not just react to daily headlines — if they want to survive what's coming."

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Dalio in a tweet, warns its too late already: