ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Freefallin’

• Japan finance minister Kato says closely watching market moves
• Australia Treasurer Chalmers says fall in AUD on concerns over China, and 4 RBA cuts
• Goldman Sachs see up to 200bp of Federal Reserve interest over year ahead - here's how
• Ackman draws a bead on Lutnick - pick a "bad idea", "irreconcilable conflict of interest"
• Mizuho: PBOC unlikely to allow sharp yuan depreciation despite rising trade tensions
• Japan's PM and Cabinet Secretary comments seek to dilute market damage
• Goldman Sachs raises US recession probability to 45%, cuts 2025 growth forecast
• China increases state gold reserves for the fifth consecutive month
• Druckenmiller: ‘I do not support tariffs exceeding 10%’
• ICYMI - JPMorgan forecasts US recession in late 2025 as Trump tariffs bite
• China stock index futures cratered at the open
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1980 (vs. estimate at 7.3162)
• Bitcoin back under US$78K, ETH under $1600
• Goldman Sachs expects fiscal easing from China to offset added growth drag from tariffs
• Japan's PM Ishiba: Prepared to meet Trump again
• Chinese State Media says People's Bank of China may have room for a rate cut (RRR)
• Japan - Nikkei 225, Topix futures halted, limit down - first domino?
• Recap - Trump shrugs off stock market collapse - "sometimes you have to take medicine"
• Japan data - February real wages decline again, -1.2% y/y (2nd time in a row)
• Trump crash - Trump says sometimes markets have to take the medicine
• Trump says not making a deal with China unless solve trade deficit
• RBNZ Shadow Board recommends a rate cut this week
• Reminder - if it comes to this - US equity futures have 7% price limits circuit breakers
• US markets reopen for the week - S&P 500 futures down 2.5% and NASDAQ down 3.2%
• The Great Bitcoin Decoupling, an update .... ohh.....
• Trade ideas thread - Monday, 7 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
• USD/JPY is trading under 145.50 in very early Asia action
• More than 50 countries have now contacted the US for tariff talks
• Dealing desks will be staffed Sunday for the Trump crash reopening of US markets
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick says there will be no delay in tariffs, set to begin April 9
• Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 07 April 2025
• Newsquawk Week Ahead: US & China CPI, FOMC Minutes, RBNZ, US Earnings Season, UK GDP

Markets across Asia went into free fall on Monday, following the same on Wall Street on Friday.

As is always the case on Mondays, early FX trading, hours and hours before equity futures open for trade, showed the way. In a 6am Sydney time post (4pm US Eastern time Sunday) I noted USD/JPY was already more than 100 points lower than its late Friday level. Weekend index pricing, which is not based on exchange pricing but during events like this can be very helpful, was showing gaps lower also.

US equity indexes fell heavily upon Globex reopening, but have since recovered some of their losses. Regional stocks here in Asia are still heavy.

USD/JPY traded to lows under 145.00 and then recovered somewhat to cover the gap from Friday, trading to a high circa 146.75. Huge swings for the pair.

Other major FX followed a similar patterns with minor variation, lower then a gap cover. AUD/USD hit a 5-year low.

As for news flow. US officials said more than 50 countries have contacted the administration to seek trade/tariff talks. This advertising was seen by the market as an attempt to prop up stocks. It was countered by Trump speaking with media on his plane trip back from a weekend of golfing saying on the stock market collapse that sometimes it just has to take the medicine. Trump also said that he would not make a deal with China until the trade deficit was solved. No mention of fentanyl.

Crude dropped under US$60.

Bitcoin dropped under US$78K (other crypto slumped as well).

In other news (see the points above for more detail):

• Japanese real wages fell y/y again (February data),
• the People’s Bank of China set the reference rate for CNY and the weakest, for yuan, since December 3 last year,
• Chinese State Media, People's Daily, said that China may have room for a Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) cut, and an interest rate cut,
• Data from China showed the PBOC bought gold for reserves a fifth month in a row
• JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs boosted up their chances of a US recession

USD/JPY covered its gap: