• Says 90 day US-China trade deal suggests potential for more lasting agreements, likely supporting normalisation of trade flows.
  • Sees oil supply outside OPEC+ rising by 800K BPD this year (previously 900K).
  • Sees 5% cut un E&P investment in non-OPEC+ producers in 2025.
  • Trims forecast for total US oil supply growth in 2025 to 300K BPD (previously 400K).
  • Says OPEC+ crude output averaged 40.92 MBPD in April 2025, down 106K BPD from March.

The de-escalating trade war is certainly a positive development for the crude oil market. We are now consolidating at a key resistance zone, but a breakout and new highs look more likely.

OPEC
Source: Forex Live