The USD is lower to start the new trading week as the market continue to be whipped around by on again/off again tariffs. The video above will look at the 3 major currency pairs from a technical perspective and outline the bias, risk and target levels for today and going foward.

Last week the Trump administration raised tariffs on China goods to 145% (China retaliated), but also delayed certain tariffs for 90 days. Then on Friday, the Trump administration said it would exclude electronics from broader so-called reciprocal tariffs. That was good for the likes of Apple of course. However, by Sunday that tune had changed, when Commerce Sec. Lutnick said:

“They’re exempt from the reciprocal tariffs but they’re included in the semiconductor tariffs, which are coming in probably a month or two,”

Later, Trump added to the confusion when he posted there was no “exception” at all because the goods are “just moving to a different” bucket and will still face a 20% tariff as part of his administration’s move to punish China for its role in fentanyl trafficking.

The administration appears so disorganized that it’s losing track of the very reasons behind the tariffs it has already imposed.

The stock market is brushing off the latest developments, hopeful that the administration will once again retreat when pushed to the brink. Meanwhile, 10-year yields surged nearly 50 basis points last week—the largest weekly jump since 2002 - that is not good for the plan to make housing more affordable and lower the cost of debt.

Looking at the stock market to start the day/week, the futures are implying:

  • Dow industrial average up 328 points
  • S&P index up 66 points
  • NASDAQ index up 296 points

IN the US debt market

  • 2 year yield down -5.5 basis points to 3.92%
  • 5-year yield down -6.7 basis points to 4.098%
  • 10-year yield down -5.5 basis points to 4.440%
  • 30-year yield down -2.4 basis points to 4.853%

In other markets:

  • Crude oil is up $0.84 or 1.27% at $62.34
  • Gold is down -$14 or -0.42% at $3223
  • Bitcoin is up $1150 or $84909
Source: Forex Live