USDCAD pressured lower as sellers stay in control below key MAs. Low for the year is eyed.

USDCAD is under pressure today after sellers yesterday (and on Monday too) stepped in near dual resistance from the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart and the 100-day moving average — a confluence that capped rallies and kept the bearish bias intact (see blue lines on the chart above).

The downside momentum accelerated yesterday and continued into today, with the pair breaking below the 50% retracement of the September 2024 low to the recent high, located at 1.4108. That level now acts as close resistance. Stay below is more bearish. The price is at 1.4062 currently.

The pair's decline has the price moving closer to the next key support zone — the swing area between 1.40268 and 1.4009. That zone is critical, not just for price structure, but because just below it sits the rising 200-day moving average at 1.39968. Importantly, USDCAD has not traded below its 200-day MA since October 2024, making it a significant line in the sand for both bulls and bears.

A break below the 200-day MA would further shift the bias to the downside and could open the door for deeper retracements. Until then, short-term momentum remains with sellers, but key support is nearing.

Key levels:

• Resistance: 1.4108 (50% retracement), Swing area between 1.41498 and 1.41789.

• Support: 1.40268 → 1.4009 (swing area), 1.39968 (200-day MA)

• Bias: Bearish below 1.4108, with focus on 1.4009 and 1.39968 for a support test