AUDUSD capped by 100-day MA, support test underway

The AUDUSD is once again struggling at familiar resistance near its 100-day moving average. Earlier today, the pair moved higher but stalled just shy of the 100-day MA — a level that also capped rallies in February and saw two failed breakouts in March. Sellers leaned against it again, reinforcing the barrier and shifting momentum back to the downside.

From a technical perspective, the latest move lower has taken the price down to a key confluence of support:

• The 61.8% retracement of the move up from the February low

• The 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart

• A prior swing area (see red numbered circles)

This zone is currently being tested and represents a potential pivot for the short-term bias.

What’s next?

• Break below the current support area (around 0.6224) would increase bearish pressure and target the next support near 0.61779 down to 0.61608 (50% and swing area)

• Hold and bounce from this area could see another push higher — but bulls would need to clear the 100-day MA near 0.63935 to flip the bias more convincingly

With the broader trend still biased to the downside and repeated failures at the 100-day MA, sellers maintain short term control — but this support zone is key.