• Inflation risk from trade tensions seems weak and could even be downward.
  • Inflationary risk from a few weeks ago has gone.
  • We are ready to act quickly depending on the data.
  • We are in a "very choppy sea".
  • Agile pragmatism applies to the latest decision.
  • Cannot say today what the ECB will decide in June.
  • The ECB must be prepared for various possibilities.

The market sees a 69% probability of a 25 bps cut in June and a total of 63 bps of easing by year-end.

ECB's Villeroy
ECB's Villeroy
Source: Forex Live