USDCAD presses lower but lacks momentum;key ceilings and moving averages keep lid on gains

The USDCAD continues to grind lower, posting a series of lower lows over the last 13 days, but downside momentum remains limited. The pair has been largely contained within a broad consolidation range, with the lower boundary near 1.3759 and resistance capped near 1.3904.

More recent attempts by buyers to push the price above the 200-hour moving average (green line currently near 1.38346) have failed, reinforcing that moving average—as well as the nearby 100-hour MA at 1.38148—as interim resistance. The inability to break these levels over the last few days, signals that buyers are still lacking conviction.

Overhead (on a break of the 200-hour MA), a firm ceiling between 1.3892 and 1.3904 has rejected rallies multiple times over the past few weeks. A break above that zone would be needed to shift the medium-term bias more favorably for buyers.

On the downside, while the pair has marked incremental new lows, momentum has been shallow. Support remains near 1.3759, and a break below could open up further downside probing as the pair trades at the lowest level going back to October 2024. The 61.8% of the range since the September 2024 low closing at 1.37415. Getting below that retracement level would be significant.

Key technical levels:

• Resistance: 1.38148 (100-hour MA), 1.38346 (200-hour MA), 1.3892–1.3904 (swing area forming ceiling)

• Support: 1.3759 - 1.3781 (lows going back to April 21)

• Bias: Bearish tilt while below moving averages, but lacking strong downside momentum until a break and staying below 2024 lows.