USDCAD wavers as tariff headlines test key support and resistance zones

The USDCAD extended higher on Tuesday, briefly breaking above the March 20 high at 1.4403 and reaching a peak of 1.4414. However, the rally was short-lived. Headlines suggesting tariffs would be less severe than expected triggered a sharp reversal, pushing the pair back below key technical levels — namely, the 100-bar (1.4341) and 200-bar (1.4323) moving averages on the 4-hour chart. That shift sent a signal that bullish momentum was faltering, turning the near-term bias back to the downside.

In the Asian session today, the pair dipped to a low of 1.4288, just above the rising 100-day moving average at 1.4278. That level provided support and helped stall the decline. Since then, price action has turned choppy, oscillating around the 200-bar MA on the H4 chart (currently near 1.4323) as traders brace for further tariff developments at 4 PM ET.

Looking ahead, the 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart will be key technical barometers. Holding above them would keep the bullish scenario alive, while a firm break below could open the door for deeper losses.

To the downside:

• A break below the 100-day MA at 1.4278 and the "Red Box" low at 1.4268 would strengthen bearish momentum.

• Below that, focus turns to 1.4236 (last week’s and early March lows), followed by the February lows at 1.4167 and 1.4150.

To the upside:

• A move above 1.4342 would shift the bias back in favor of buyers.

• Key resistance comes in at 1.4403–1.4414, followed by the top of the "Red Box" between 1.4448 and 1.4471.

• Breaking above the box would signal a potential bullish breakout and continuation.

With the pair now caught between critical support and resistance levels, upcoming tariff news could be the catalyst that drives the next major move.