On a day in which the US Dollar (USD) sold off across G10, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) advanced by 0.7% yesterday helped in part by the decision of the Bank of Canada to hold off from cutting rates again – the first pause from the BoC since the beginning of the easing cycle in June last year.
EUR/USD rebounded 1% overnight but remains below last Friday’s 1.1473 high. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25bps to 2.25%, and President Lagarde is expected to flag euro strength and US tariffs as key disinflationary risks, DBS' FX strategist Philip Wee notes.
The US Dollar (USD) weakened into the close of trading on Wednesday but has rebounded helped in part by optimism over the pace in which the US might be willing to reach deals with key trading partners.
In New Zealand, a CPI indicator is published every month, but these monthly figures only cover the prices of around 44% of the basket of goods and services, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.
After losing 57,500 jobs in February, the Australian labour market rebounded slightly in March with 32,200 new jobs, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.
EUR/CHF is clinging to key support at 0.9210, the lower boundary of its long-standing range. While the decline has paused, a clear move above the 200-DMA (0.9410/0.9430) is needed to confirm a short-term recovery.
The US Dollar (USD) had another bad day on Wednesday, suffering several losses – EUR/USD even briefly traded above 1.14. However, this was not really due to the data, which was mixed at best.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered the clearest message since 'liberation day' yesterday, which was unquestionably hawkish, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
We expect a 25bp rate cut by the ECB today. Consensus is unanimous, and markets are fully pricing in the move, so the impact on the euro may prove limited, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
The NZD/USD pair retreats from the vicinity of mid-0.5900s, or a fresh year-to-date high touched during the Asian session this Thursday, in reaction to stronger-than-expected consumer inflation figures from New Zealand.
Gold price extended its record streak for the third time in the week as the Greenback weakened due to tensions between China and the US related to trade policies. These tensions are increasing the appeal of safety assets like precious metals.
The NZD/USD pair advanced for a third session on Wednesday, holding near the 0.5900 region ahead of the Asian session. The pair saw modest gains and remained confined within a relatively tight range between 0.58865 and 0.59308, suggesting a steady bullish tone.
The GBP/JPY pair continued to edge lower on Wednesday, falling toward the 188 zone and marking a daily decline of nearly 0.9%. The cross remains anchored near the bottom of its range between 187.668 and 189.664, reinforcing the weight of recent selling pressure.
AUDUSD testing resistance at 0.6390, break above could lead to gains towards 0.6428. Support seen at 0.6326-0.6340, downside potential to 100-day MA at 0.6289.
The British Pound advanced during the North American session, posting soft gains of 0.14% against the Greenback as inflation slowed to its weakest level in three months. This adds to pressure on the Bank of England to reduce interest rates.
Euro (EUR) is up an impressive 0.7% against the US Dollar (USD) and recovering back toward the upper end of its four- session range, strengthening in tandem with its regional peers Swiss Franc (CHF) and Swedish Krona (SEK), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) lost ground yesterday after weaker than expected CPI data lifted market speculation that the BoC could cut interest rates at today’s policy decision (13:45 GMT), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is up 0.3% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 currencies as it extends its gains for a seventh consecutive session and pushes toward its prior (September) highs around 1.34, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The USD is trading defensively this morning again, while US Treasurys are weaker (and underperforming) and US equity futures are softer. Global stocks are lower after the US government said it would require Nvidia to obtain a license to export one of its chips to China.
While a Bank of Canada hold is widely expected, it's the looming US-Canada trade tensions and the outcome of Canada's late-April election that may shape the CAD's path.
Much has happened since the US 'Liberation Day' on 2 April. Tariffs have been introduced, only to be partially suspended. Negotiations have begun, though seemingly without much prospect of success. And new tariffs are already being planned. Of course, all this has not left the markets unscathed.
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