There is too much focus on jobs and not enough on big changes immigration

Deutche Bank is out with a note highlighting that the focus on jobs might be the wrong one. The big change in the US economy is in immigration, which has cratered this year -- falling more than 90% from the January 2022 to June 2024 average.

They note that this is equivalent to an annual slowdown in labor force growth of more than 2 million people.

Last year we were writing that the US was benefitting from a goldilocks mix of high employment growth and low wages precisely because of high immigration numbers. If recent immigration trends continue, it must follow that over the course of the year the reverse will happen. As the 2022 energy shock showed, a negative supply shock is not good news for a currency.

Between this and trade, you have some big structural changes happening in the economy under the surface. Add in a out-of-control deficit and it's not a great recipe.