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Trump considering major NATO shift: Won't defend countries that don't meet spending target
NBC News report
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Bessent: If I were an Iranian, I would get all my money out of the rial now
Comments from the Treasury Secretary
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The details of what Trump announces today on USMCA will be key
There are some quirks around USMCA
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US stock markets fall to the lows of the day, Nasdaq down 2.2%
Ugly day for stocks
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Mexican President confirms tariff agreement with Trump
Comments from Sheinbaum
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Additional tariff exemptions coming later today - report
Fox Business report from Edward Lawrence
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Trump: I have agreed that Mexico will not be required to pay tariffs on anything in USMCA
Trump makes it official
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CIBC slashes Canadian and US GDP forecasts on trade war pain
CIBC sees a deep contraction in Q2 in Canada (though that's subject to change depending on what happens today)
CAD
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Canadian dollar rises to best levels since Feb 24 on signs the tariff war will pause
USD/CAD down 68 pips to 1.4268
CAD
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ECB Review: Meaningfully less restrictive – Danske Bank
Today the ECB decided to cut the policy rate by 25bp, so the deposit rate now yields 2.50%.
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The ridiculous idea that Trudeau won't step down is ridiculous
It's done, he's done.
Politics
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EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls push above the 200-day SMA as rally extends
EUR/USD extended its rally on Thursday, climbing past the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) after the European session, signaling strong bullish momentum.
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Canada: Trade surplus explodes as exporters rush to beat tariffs – National Bank of Canada
While the magnitude of the move was surprising, there is no doubt about the cause of the explosion in the goods trade surplus in January, NBC's Jocelyn Paquet reports.
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GBP/USD rally stalls near 1.2900 as trade war fears weigh on traders
The rally in the Pound Sterling stalled after sustaining three straight days of gains.
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Lutnick: Tariff reprieve likely to include all USMCA products
Huge news
CAD
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Trudeau indicates that the trade war isn't about to end
Ominous comment from Trudeau
CAD
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US January final wholesale inventories +0.8% vs +0.7% expected
January US wholesale inventories and sales
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Trudeau: Canada is continuing to talk to the US. The goal is to get tariffs lifted
Statement from Trudeau
CAD
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Intraday USDCAD reversal: Key signal near 200 hour MA
The 200 hour MA is a key barometer in the short term.
CAD
USD
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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD corrects to near $32.40 as Trump reprieves tariffs on automobiles
Silver Price (XAG/USD) corrects from the weekly high of $32.70 and drops to near $32.40 in North American trading hours on Thursday.
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EUR/JPY finds temporary support as ECB cuts Deposit Facility rate by 25 bps to 2.5%
The EUR/JPY pair finds temporary support after sliding more than 0.75% intraday to near 159.20 in Thursday’s North American session.
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US: Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 221K last week
US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance decreased to 221K for the week ending March 1, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday.
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US international trade balance for January -131.4B vs -127.4B estimate
The monthly US trade data for January 2025
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US initial jobless claims 221K vs 235K estimate
The weekly initial and continuing claims
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US Q4 unit labor costs +2.2% vs +3.0% expected
US productivity and labor cost data
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Canada January trade balance +3.97B vs +1.28B expected
Canadian January 2025 trade balance data
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GBP tags along with general FX trend – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) briefly nudged above 1.29 for the first time since November.
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Big job cuts number raises the stakes for initial jobless claims and non-farm payrolls
Is it just government jobs? Will it stay that way?
economic calendar
USD
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CAD edges marginally lower – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is marginally weaker. Canada got a further, temporary concession from the US border tariff regime yesterday, with the White House announcing a one-month reprieve for the auto sector, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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ForexLive European FX news wrap: Japanese yen jumps, stocks on the rocks
Forex news from the European morning session on Mar 6, 2025
Session wrap
Wrap Europe
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USD prone to weakness as investors ponder 'US exceptionalism' – Scotiabank
The USD is mixed to weaker overall on the session amid a broader slump in market sentiment.
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EUR peaked above 1.08 ahead of ECB policy decision – Scotiabank
The ECB policy decision this morning is less about the expected 25bps cut—it’s fully priced in—than how the policy outlook is communicated, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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US Dollar retreats to below104.00 in the DXY after ECB's Lagarde issues warnings on volatile period ahead
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is residing below the 104.00 marker this Thursday in a week filled with turmoil. Besides warning signs from the European Central Bank
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US February Challenger layoffs 172.02k vs 49.79k prior
Latest data released by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. - 6 March 2025
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Trump reportedly plans to disrupt Iran oil exports by halting vessels at sea
Reuters reports, citing sources familiar with the matter
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USD/CAD gains to near 1.4360 despite US Dollar declines
The USD/CAD pair moves higher to near 1.4360 in Thursday’s European session despite the US Dollar (USD) extends its downside, suggesting significant weakness in the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
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EUR/CHF: Domestic inflation continues to edge lower– Danske Bank
CHF was among the big losers yesterday with EUR/CHF rising 1.5% during yesterday's session, Danske Bank's FX analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen reports.
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EUR/USD: ECB meeting to have limited market impact – Danske Bank
EUR/USD has risen sharply this week, breaking well above 1.07 for the first time since the US election, with EUR optimism continuing in yesterday's session.
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What are the calls going into the ECB policy decision later?
A 25 bps rate cut is very much a given, the main focus is on the policy phrasing of "restrictive"
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Metals: Comex/LME copper arb surges – ING
Comex copper futures surged more than 5% yesterday after US President Donald Trump proposed a 25% tariff on copper imports, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.
Copper
Metals
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