ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Awaiting Trump reciprocal tariff announcement

• Fox reports that Elon Musk plans to step down from Doge at the end of May
• Japan Prime Minister Ishiba: need to achieve wage gains that exceed pace of inflation
• US Senator to introduce bill allowing Americans to invest their retirement funds in crypto
• China Caixin March Manufacturing PMI 51.2 (vs. expected 51.1 and prior 50.8)
• Trump is to announce his next round of tariffs at 3pm US Eastern time Wednesday
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1775 (vs. estimate at 7.2606)
• China's Commerce Ministry says held a hearing on imported beef safeguard measures
• Vote in US Congress on Tuesday to block blanket tariffs on Canada could rebuke Trump
• Australia retail sales in February +0.2% m/m (expected +0.3%, prior +0.3%)
• Japan final manufacturing PMI for March 48.4 (preliminary was 48.3)
• Judge delays the deportation of up to 350K migrants from the US
• BOJ official says major producers sentiment worsened due to 3 factors
• BoJ Q1 2025 Tankan - Large manufacturing index 12 (expected 12, prior 14)
• China will be conducting military exercises near Taiwan from today (April1 )
• Japan February Unemployment Rate 2.4% (vs. 2.5% expected)
• ICYMI - Japan’s GPIF will maintain its current allocation
• UK data - BRC shop price index (an inflation indicator) -0.4% y/y in March (expected -0.4)
• Trump says he's settled on a tariff plan
• Trump says 'going to be nice' on tariffs
• Big jump for the Australian March Manufacturing PMI, final comes in at 52.1 (prior 50.4)
• Trump signed an executive order establishing the United States investment accelerator
• Iran warns will respond swiftly, decisively, to act of aggression or attack by US, Israel
• ICYMI - BOJ will reduce purchases of 10–25-year JGBs for the first time
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 31 Mar:Markets rebound late despite tariff fears/mixed Fed
• Reports that Trump won't decide on tariffs until the morning of April 2
• Trade ideas thread - Tuesday, 1 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

US Treasury Secretary Bessent said today (interview on Fox) that Trump’s announcement on his next round of tariffs will be on Wednesday, April 2, at 3 pm US Eastern time (1900 GMT). Ahead of this Trump spoke with media Monday evening dropping a few hints on what to expect. In brief:

• Trump said he has settled on a tariff plan
• is going to be "very kind"
• "The word reciprocal is very important"
• we are going to be nice very comparison to other countries
• in some cases maybe substantially lower

This all doesn’t sound like some sort of 20% blanket tariff will be applied, but we await Trump’s decision.

The Bank of Japan released its quarterly ‘Tankan’ report. The results were reasonable, not spectacular, showing the 17^th quarter in a row of positive. The inflation expectations part of the survey showed a slight rise, which will be some encouragement for the BoJ rate hike path ahead.

China's private manufacturing PMI showed expansion at its fastest rate in four months in March. Stronger demand and robust export orders cited, although escalating US tariffs do not bode well ahead.

On the geopolitical front, China launched a major military exercise around Taiwan today. State media says the exercises are a 'warning' to separatist forces:

• "to approach Taiwan Island from multiple directions around the island"; and "seizing comprehensive control, sea and land strikes, and blocking key areas and roads."

Yet to come is the Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision (0330 GMT/2330 US Eastern time) followed by Bullock’s press conference (an hour later).

Major FX has traded in subdued ranges only. AUD and NZD had a slight dip on news that China’s Commerce Ministry held a hearing on imported beef safeguard measures

Gold rallied further, another record high hit, as the squeeze continued.