Above is the kickstart forex video where I take a look at the technicals driving the three major currency pairs- the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. Each pair is seeing a lower USD after declines yesterday.

Below is a snapshot of the changes of the major currency pairs:

USD

The run lower in the USD was partially helped yesterday by a sharp decline in yields where the 10 year yield moved down around 10 basis points. Today, yields are marginally higher.

That move lower came despite Pres. Trump order to draft a plan for reciprocal tariffs on countries taxing U.S. imports, aiming for "fairness" in trade. He also called for removing non-tariff barriers like value-added taxes and safety restrictions. While no tariffs were immediately imposed, investigations into trade ties with allies like the EU, South Korea, and Japan could lead to action later this year. Analysts warn this isn't just rhetoric but a serious warning. In his second term, Trump has already imposed 10% tariffs on China, levied duties on steel and aluminum, and delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico (although the tariff on steel and aluminum are tariffs on Canada and Mexico too).

In other geopolitical news this morning, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent addressed several key economic and geopolitical issues. On China, he noted that rare earth processing still takes place in Europe. Regarding Iran, he warned that the U.S. could apply maximum economic pressure, potentially pushing Iran into severe economic distress by cutting its oil exports to 100,000 BPD. His remarks led to an immediate rise in crude oil prices, with WTI and Brent both seeing notable gains.

On Ukraine, Bessent revealed he presented a plan to President Zelensky aimed at deepening economic ties with the U.S., stating that if directed by Trump, the U.S. would impose maximum sanctions on Russia. He expressed confidence in securing a deal after Vice President Vance’s meeting with Zelensky, though Zelensky himself indicated that while discussions with Trump were positive, he does not believe the U.S. has a peace plan yet. Meanwhile, Bessent also addressed trade policy, emphasizing that the U.S. will monitor how foreign nations respond to its tariffs and will impose its own if necessary. He warned that trade costs could rise significantly if other countries do not lower their tariffs.Looking at other markets:

US stocks closed higher yesterday with the S&P closing within 3-4 points of a new record level.

  • Dow industrial average up 3 44.75 points or 0.77% at 44711.31
  • S&P index closed up 63.09 points or 1.04% at 6115.07
  • NASDAQ index rose 295.69 points or 1.50% at 19945.64

The small-cap Russell 2000 closed higher by 26.29 points or 1.17% at 2282.18.

Today, the futures are implying declines in the 3 major indices. Meta - which is working on a 19 day win streak - is down in pre-market trading (-0.30%). It is time to have a decline...right? :(prices at 8:10 am ET)

  • Dow industrial average -83 points
  • S&P index --6.5 points
  • Nasdaq index -21 points

The snapshot of the European market is showing mixed results as the NA session begins shows:

  • German DAX, -0.34%
  • France's CAC +0.38%
  • UK's FTSE 100 -0.10%
  • Spain's Ibex +0.11%
  • Italy's FTSE MIB +0.49%

In the US debt market, the yields are mixed with a steeper yield curve. Yesterday yields moved down around 10 basis points.

  • 2-year yield, 4.299%, -1.2 basis points
  • 5-year yield 4.386%, unchanged
  • 10-year yield 4.536%, +1.2 basis points
  • 30-year yield 4.746%, +2.1 basis points

Yesterday yields moved higher by 7 to 9 basis points across the curve after the CPI surprise

The 30 year auction yesterday was not all that great. That came after an average 10 year and solid 3 year note auction. I gave the auction a below average grade of D.

Looking in other markets as the North American session begins shows:

  • Crude oil is trading up $0.56 or 0.77% at $71.84
  • Silver is trading up $0.81 or 2.47% at $33.14
  • Gold is trading up near unchanged at $2926.62
  • Bitcoin is trading near unchanged and $96,600
Source: Forex Live