What are the main events for today?

The highlight in the European session will be the ECB rate decision, although it's unlikely that the central bank will surprise the markets in any way. In the American session, we have the US Jobless Claims which are now even more important given that they could give an earlier signal of deterioration in the labour market. It's unlikely to see much reaction though unless they make a new cycle high.

12:15 GMT/08:15 ET - ECB Policy Announcement

The ECB is expected to cut by 25 bps bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%. The market then expects at least two more rate cuts by year-end. Interest rates expectations have been shaped by the ongoing trade war and the recent 90-days pause for reciprocal tariffs helped to alleviate the aggressive pricing. It’s all about the trade negotiations now as the data remains old news.

12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US Jobless Claims

The US Jobless Claims continue to be one of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.

Initial Claims remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims hover around cycle highs.

This week Initial Claims are expected at 225K vs. 223K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1872K vs. 1850K prior.

Central bank speakers:

• 15:45 GMT/11:45 ET - Fed's Barr (neutral - voter)