BofA is saying that the July report should feature a softer headline on the US non-farm payrolls, with them estimating a print of +60k. The firm says that a drop in state & local government jobs as being what will weigh down the number after June’s temporary hiring surge.

Meanwhile, they are estimating the unemployment rate to be 4.2% - which it sees as benign but could reinforce the narrative that the labour market is indeed softening.

Besides that, BofA also argues that unfavorable seasonal factors could weigh on the headline figure but any impact from immigration policy is not expected to show up just yet. On the latter, they see it only coming later in the months ahead.

Overall, the firm notes that the July report should continue to support the claim that the labour market is weakening. However, it is not likely to get the Fed to move in September unless accompanied by softer inflation data as well.

You can check out the distribution of forecasts here, as we count down to the main event before the weekend.

Source: Forex Live