Gold Technical Analysis – The major trendline stops the fall once again

Fundamental Overview

Gold eventually bounced again from the major upward trendline as the lower than expected US inflation figures didn’t trigger a more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations. We are also approaching the Trump’s August 1 deadline for tariffs which might keep some defensive bets alive even though the deadline is expected to be postponed.

In the bigger picture, gold should remain in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed easing. But further hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations could trigger corrections in the short term.

Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that gold bounced once again from the major upward trendline as the dip-buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally back into the 3438 resistance. The sellers will need the price to break below the trendline to open the door for a deeper pullback and target the 3120 level next.

Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 3377 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk above the resistance to target a break below the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 3438 level next.

Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we now have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. If we were to get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to target a break above the minor resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the major trendline targeting a breakout. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Tomorrow we have Fed Chair Powell speaking. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the flash US PMIs.

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