In the video above, I provide a technical snapshot of the three major currency pairs—EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD. The USD is weaker against all three, driven by lower yields. The biggest mover is USD/CHF, down -0.67%, with EUR/CHF also lower by -0.54%. This decline comes despite CPI figures of -0.1% MoM and 0.4% YoY, as well as the potential for peace, though not imminently. On the daily chart, USD/CHF reached 0.9155, just 1 pip shy of a key swing area at 0.9156.

USDCHF

Politcal and geopolitical news is also a driver. This morning Pres. Trump balanced the news by saying today is the "TODAY IS THE BIG ONE!!! RECIPRICOL TARIFFS!!!" (his capital lettering). Yippee. He balanced that by saying " GREAT TALKS WITH RUSSIA AND UKRAINE YESTERDAY. GOOD POSSIBILITY OF ENDING THAT HORRIBLE. VERY BLOODY WAR!!!!". Yesterday, that news helped push the US stocks higher.

The U.S. PPI is set for release at 8:30 AM ET, following yesterday’s disappointing CPI data. Analysts will watch for signs that CPI price increases have spilled over into PPI. These figures, combined, help calculate the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge, as noted by Fed Chair Powell in his testimony.

  • PPI Expectations: +0.3% for both headline and core
  • YoY Forecasts: 3.2% (headline), 3.3% (core)

Also at 8:30 AM, weekly jobless claims are expected at 215K (prev. 219K), with continuing claims forecast at 1.880M (prev. 1.886M).

US stocks closed mixed yesterday with the Nasdaq closing marginally higher, the S&P and the Dow closed lower. Below is the snapshot of the closing levels::

  • Dow industrial average -225.03 points or -0.50% at 44368.62.
  • S&P index -16.56 points or -0.27% at 6051.94.
  • NASDAQ index rose 6.09 points or 0.03% at 19649.95.

Today, the futures are implying small changes in the major indices::

  • Dow industrial average +4.4 points
  • S&P index -2.4 points
  • Nasdaq index +21.2 points

For the Meta Watch (18 straight higher closes) , the pre-market trading is implying a modest -0.14% decline.

European major indices are trading mostly higher in the US morning snapshot. The exception is UK's FTSE 100 which is down -0.5%. The German DAX is starting to yet another new record high. France's CAC, Italy's FTSE MIB, and Spain's Ibex are also reaching new multiyear highs:

  • German DAX, 1.61%
  • France's CAC 1.37%
  • UK's FTSE 100 -0.52%
  • Spain's Ibex 0.24%
  • Italy's FTSE MIB 0.39%

In the US debt market, the yields are lower ahead of PPI, initial jobless claims, reciprocal tariffs, peace rhetoric:

  • 2-year yield, 4.3488%, -1.6 basis points
  • 5-year yield 4.451%, -3.0 basis points
  • 10-year yield 4.597%, -3.7 basis points
  • 30-year yield 4.801%, -3.4 basis points

Yesterday yields moved higher by 7 to 9 basis points across the curve

At 1 PM, the US treasury will auction 30-year notes. The 10 year note auctions on Wednesday was met with average demand. The three year note auction on Tuesday was met with strong international demand.

Looking at other markets:

  • Crude oil is trading down -15 cents or -1.47% at $70.32
  • Silver is trading unchanged at $32.19
  • Gold is trading up $10 or 0.34% at $2914.55
  • Bitcoin is trading down $2000 at $95,900
Source: Forex Live