USDCAD

Yesterday at this time, USD was testing a key swing area support between 1.4149 and 1.4179. The price briefly dipped below the lower end of the zone but quickly bounced—sellers turned into buyers, leading to a recovery.

As the day progressed, momentum continued higher. The pair broke above 1.4238, a level marked by swing lows from March 6 and March 26. The move extended toward the next cluster of resistance, defined by:

  • A swing area around 1.42697,

  • The broken 38.2% retracement,

  • The falling 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, and

  • The 100-day moving average near 1.4280.

The rally peaked at 1.4273 during early Asian trading before reversing lower. Since then, the price has slid back, and as the US session begins, we’re right back from whence it all started yesterday in the 1.4149–1.4179 support zone . The current price is 1.4166.

What’s been learned?

The risk and bias boundaries are now more clearly defined:

  • Support: 1.4149

  • Resistance: 1.4280

Buyers may lean against the current support zone, looking for a rebound above 1.4179 to attract fresh interest. On the other hand, sellers will want to break and hold below 1.4149.

If that level gives way, downside targets include:

  • The 50% midpoint of the September 2024 low move at 1.4108

  • A swing zone between 1.4089 and 1.4104

  • The recent low at 1.40686

  • And finally, the 200-day moving average near 1.3995, edging closer to the psychological 1.4000 level

On the topside, the hope is a break above the 1.4179 leads to sellers turned buyers with 1.4238 the next target.

Source: Forex Live