USDJPY Technical Analysis – The JPY needs positive news on the trade front

Fundamental Overview

The USD remained pretty much supported since the US NFP report as the data came out better than expected and triggered a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations. Unfortunately for the greenback, that wasn’t enough as wage growth came out on the softer side which limited further repricing and more sustained gains.

On the JPY side, we got some disappointing wage growth figures on Monday and the US-Japan negotiations don’t look to be going well. As a reminder, the BoJ continues to place a great deal on the US-Japan trade deal before looking at adjusting rates. So, negative news on the trade front erodes the hopes for another rate hike by year-end.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY continues to edge higher towards the 148.28 resistance. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop back into the 142.35 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 151.19 level next.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop back into the 144.35 zone.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 146.50 level. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in to target a break below the trendline, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 148.28 level next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

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