• GBP/USD posts modest gains around 1.2585 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
  • The US Retail Sales dropped 0.9% in January, weaker than expected.
  • Investors brace for the UK labor market data and CPI inflation data, which are due later this week. 

The GBP/USD pair trades with mild gains near 1.2585 during the early Asian session on Monday. The major pair edges higher amid the upbeat UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and weaker US Retail Sales data. The US market will be closed on Monday in observance of President's Day. 

US Retail Sales posted the biggest drop in nearly two years, dragging the Greenback lower. Retail Sales dropped 0.9% in January after an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in December, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau reported Friday. This figure came in weaker than the estimation of a 0.1% decline. On a yearly basis, Retail Sales increased 4.2% during the same reported period. 

The better-than-expected UK GDP provides some support to the Pound Sterling (GBP). The UK economy grew by 0.1% QoQ in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024, beating expectations, according to a preliminary estimate from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Thursday.

Traders will keep an eye on the UK labor market data and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which will be published on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. These reports could offer some hints as to whether the Bank of England (BoE) will cut its interest rates again in the March meeting.

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

 

Source: Fxstreet