US April trade balance -61.6B vs -70.0B expected

• Prior was -140.5B (revised to -138.3B)
• Goods trade balance -86.97B vs -162.2B prior (prelim was -87.62B)
• Prior goods trade balance was -147.85B
• Exports +3.0% vs +0.2% prior
• Imports -16.3% vs +4.4% prior

March was the largest-ever trade balance number as importers front-ran the Liberation Day tariffs. In April, imports fell dramatically and that caused a massive rebound in the trade balance. Notably though, April's balance is still only back to where it was in late-2023. I would expect some further improvement in May but it's going to be a mess as we work through the tariffs.

Imports fell $68.9 billion in the month with about half of that as consumer goods; within consumer goods, a big chunk of that was pharma, highlighting how easy it is to import and stockpile pills.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $179.3 billion, or 65.7%, from the same period in 2024.

USD/JPY was trading at 143.17 ahead of the data but actually fell to 142.84. That's because initial jobless claims data released at the same time was dollar-negative.