In June, U.S. core PCE inflation rose 0.3% month-over-month, in line with expectations and marking the highest monthly gain since February, while the annual rate held at 2.8%, slightly above the 2.7% forecast.

The data reinforces the Fed’s concerns about inflation (closer to 3% in 2%), with tariff-driven price increases in goods—notably furniture, household items, and recreational products—feeding upstream costs to consumers. At the same time, service-sector inflation remains resilient, particularly in areas tied to financial services and asset pricing.

While the Fed views tariff-related inflation as potentially temporary, it acknowledges the lagged effects of pass-through pricing, and the back-to-back 0.3% monthly gains suggest inflation volatility an upward bias would continue. As a result, the path to a September rate cut has become more uncertain: odds of a cut have dropped from 65% to 39%, with the Fed likely holding rates steady at 4.25–4.50% until clearer disinflation trends emerge. The Fed chair kept the door open for policy changes September citing the ability to see two sets of employment and inflation numbers between now and then. The US jobs report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET.

The claims data this week came in better than expectations. In contrast, Challenger announced were higher countering the initial jobs claims data.

The US stocks market opened sharply higher after Meta and Microsoft spurred buying in the NASDAQ index in premarket trading. The NASDAQ index rose by 327 points in the early hours but by the end of the day had given up all those gains enclosed modestly lower by -7.23 points or -0.03%. The S&P index also gave up gains.

  • Dow industrial average fell -333.30 points or -0.74% at 44130.98.
  • S&P -23.51 points or -0.37% at 6339.39
  • NASDAQ index -7.23 points or -0.03% at 2112.45.

For Microsoft and Meta they still closed sharply higher. Meta rose by 11.25%. Microsoft rose 3.95%

In the US debt market, yields are trading mixed but near the highs:

  • 2 year yield 3.961%, +2.4 basis points.
  • 5-year yield 3.977%, +1.3 basis points
  • 10 year yield 4.382%, +0.4 basis points
  • 30 year yield 4.904%, -0.9 basis points.

Copper prices fell sharply today after Trump imposed new tariffs on copper imports, specifically focusing on semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products. These tariffs, set at 50%, and are effective as of August 1, 2025.

However, a key detail that surprised the market is that these tariffs do not apply to refined copper (cathodes), ores, concentrates, mattes, or scrap copper.

The price is down $1.23 or -22.05% on the day (the worst day on record).

  • Crude oil is down $-0.64 at $69.35
  • Gold is up $13.89 or 0.42% at $3289.71.
  • Bitcoin down $-1336 at $116,499

in Washington today, Pres. Trump:

  • Announced a framework for a Mexican trade deal.
  • Seems to be set on setting a 35% tariff on Canada
  • He will enact secondary tariffs on those who import Russian oil.
  • He sent a letter to 17 Pharma companies pressuring them to lower their prices levels seen in other countries
Source: Forex Live