InvestingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Chinese PMIs disappoint, BoJ on hold as expected

BOJ leaves short term at 0.5%, as expected

• Yen edged a little stronger after BoJ 'hold' decision and its raising inflation forecasts
• OpenAI revenue surges to $12 billion as ChatGPT user base soars
• China imposes new reporting rule on high-value precious metals and Gemstone purchases
• Australia Private Sector Credit data (June 2025) +0.6% m/m (expected +0.5%)
• Australia Retail Sales for June 2025: +1.2% m/m (expected +0.4%)
• Australian June 2025 building permits +11.9% m/m (expected +2.0%)
• Australian Q2 Terms of Trade data: Exports -4.5%, imports -0.8%
• China Manufacturing PMI (July 2025) 49.3 (vs. 49.7 expected)
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: Made trade deals with Cambodia and Thailand
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1494 (vs. estimate at 7.2062)
• Trump announced a trade agreement with South Korea earlier - recap ICYMI
• South Korea's KOSPI stock index jumps 0.65% higher after US trade deal
• Japan Preliminary June Industrial production +1.7% m/m (expected -0.6%)
• Japan June Retail sales +2.0% y/y (expected +1.8%)
• Chinese state media says some deep seated & structural problems in trade talks with US
• RBA Dep Gov Hauser: Says the CPI data were very welcome
• Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking coming up
• PREVIEW - BOJ likely to hold steady, market too hawkish on October hike odds
• Goldman Sachs calculates upcoming U.S. effective tariff rate on Brazil at 30.8%.
• Goldman Sachs flags slow growth, sticky inflation, rising yields, but stays bullish stocks
• Trump announces a trade deal with South Korea
• FWIW Trump's Hassett expects Fed will recognise its safe to cut interest rates
• Brazil’s central bank holds benchmark interest rate at 15.00%, as expected
• Hong Kong's central bank FX intervened again to support the HKD
• BOJ expected to hold rates steady, offers cautious optimism as trade headwinds ease
• Investinglive Americas FX news wrap 30 Jul: FOMC keeps rates unchanged. No hint of a cut.
• JPMorgan’s Michele: Fed likely to hold rates in September also, as it waits for more data

Trump unveiled a South Korea trade deal featuring a 15% US tariff. South Korea pledged US$350 billion in investments for U.S.-based projects, which will be selected directly by President Trump. More details are in the linked posts above.

Later in the session, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick announced that trade deals had also been reached with Thailand and Cambodia.

From China, July PMIs disappointed.

• Manufacturing PMI slipped further into contraction at 49.3 (expected 49.7, prior 49.7), marking the fourth straight month below the 50 threshold. Export momentum is fading, and domestic demand remains weak.

• Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1, still in expansion but just barely—the lowest since November last year (expected 50.3, prior 50.5).

Australia delivered a data barrage, with the standout being a solid beat on June retail sales. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser also spoke, welcoming yesterday’s better CPI data:

• The trimmed mean CPI came in exactly as forecast

On the labour market, Hauser was upbeat:

• Unemployment figures matched forecasts
• Unemployment remains very low
• The labour market is still close to full employment

Overall, Hauser’s comments did little to shift expectations for a potential RBA rate cut in August.

The main focus of the day was the Bank of Japan. The BoJ left interest rates unchanged at 0.5%, as expected, and raised its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year. In its quarterly outlook, the Bank lifted its core consumer inflation projection from 2.2% to 2.7%, reflecting cautious optimism that the U.S.-Japan trade deal will help the economy.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold his post-meeting press conference at 0630 GMT (0230 US Eastern).

The yen was the notable mover in FX. USD/JPY slipped from early-session highs near 149.40 to just below 149.00 ahead of the BoJ statement. A further dip followed the announcement, with the pair briefly trading under 148.65.
Yen crosses also edged lower. Elsewhere, major FX pairs traded in subdued ranges. EUR/USD hovered around 1.1420.

Gold firmed during the session but fell short of reclaiming the USD 3300 level.

Asia-Pac stocks:

• Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -0.2%
• Hong Kong (Hang Seng) -1%
• Japan (Nikkei 225) +0.9%
• Shanghai Composite -0.7%USD/JPY:

USD/JPY: