The long end is blowing out again as yields near the March highs

US Treasury yields are going up when they should be going down. Tariffs are obviously a big concern but the Senate also adopted a budget resolution this week.

Trump said he supported the bill entirely and it is much-less fiscally hawkish than the House version (though the House version was vague on how it would curb the deficit). The Senate version would have about $4.5 trillion in new costs and $2 trillion in savings. Moreover, the market could be seeing a recession and that would make it very hard to reign in the budget.

Largely, I think this is about liquidation and forced selling but it's tough to tell with all the moving parts.