What are the main events for today?

In the European session, the main highlight was the release of the UK CPI report. The data missed expectations across the board and although it doesn't change much in the bigger picture (as the focus remains on tariffs), it will strengthen the market's expectation for a 25 bps cut from the BoE at the upcoming meeting.

In the American session, we get the US Retail Sales report and the BoC Policy Decision. Some anecdotal data suggests that consumer spending is still holding up despite the bleak sentiment. Expectations of future spending is what the market cares about anyway. The BoC is expected to keep rates unchanged although following yesterday's lower than expected Canadian CPI, there are good chances for a cut as well.

12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US March Retail Sales

The US Retail Sales M/M is expected at 1.3% vs. 0.2% prior, while the ex-Autos figure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.3% prior. The focus will be on the Control Group figure which is expected at 0.6% vs. 1.0% prior.

Consumer spending has been stable in the past months which is something you would expect given the positive real wage growth and resilient labour market. More recently though, we’ve been seeing consumer sentiment cratering to record lows due to the ongoing trade wars which could weigh on spending going forward.

13:45 GMT/09:45 ET - Bank of Canada Policy Decision

The BoC is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.75%. As a reminder, the BoC cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75% as expected at the last meeting amid concerns over weaker growth ahead due to the trade uncertainty and US tariffs. The central bank emphasized a cautious approach to future decisions, balancing the upward pressure on inflation against the downward pressure on weaker demand. The market sees a 57% probability of a rate cut today and a total of 50 bps of easing by year-end.

Central bank speakers:

• 16:00 GMT/12:00 ET - Fed's Hammack (hawk - non voter)
• 17:30 GMT/13:30 ET - Fed Chair Powell (neutral - voter)