ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen very weak, AUd slides on poor jobs report

• Federal Reserve speakers Thursday include Kugler, Daly, Cook, Waller
• Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating on Tesla with a $285 price target
• Japan Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Aoki: Concerned about speculative FX market movements
• BlackRock’s Rieder: Tariffs yet to bite as US inflation holds steady - sees September cut
• AUD/USD lower after the jump in Australia's unemployment ensures an RBA August rate cut
• Australia June Unemployment Rate 4.3% (expected 4.1%, prior 4.1%)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1461 (vs. estimate at 7.1703)
• Japan's Akazawa and US' Lutnick held multiple phone calls
• Singapore’s exports surge in June, beating expectations amid global trade risks
• Fed’s Williams defends central bank independence, declines to address Trump criticism
• Canada's Couche-Tard drops $47 billion bid for Japan's Seven & I over lack of cooperation
• Trump officials holding up efforts to finalize agreement allowing UAE to buy Nvidia chips
• Japan June trade data: Exports -0.5% y/y (vs. expected +0.5%)
• Fed's Williams says 0.75% is a reasonable estimate of R-star (neutral interest rate)
• UBS crank up their EUR/USD forecasts, as high as 1.23
• Trump says it will disrupt market if he removes Fed Chair Powell
• More from Fed's Williams - blames tariffs for high inflation running above target
• New Zealand Food Price Index for June 2025 +1.2% (prior +0.5%)
• NY Fed Williams says current moderstly restrictive monetary policy is appropriate
• Trump says we could make a deal possibly with Europe
• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says Federal Reserve’s independence is “absolutely critical”
• Deutsche Bank warns of potential market turbulence around August 1 - 3 key flashpoints
• Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon said Federal Reserve independence “super important”
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 16 Jul:The near firing/unfiring of Powell unsettle markets
• US tsunami alert issued
• JPMorgan raise concerns about Trump political interference at the Federal Reserve
• Major US stock indices settle the day higher
• Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 17 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

News flow was limited, but a few key speakers and data points stood out.

Trump, speaking in a Wednesday afternoon U.S. interview, said:

• The U.S. is “very close” to a trade deal with India.

• A deal with Europe is possible, but “too soon to say” on Canada.

• He would “probably” impose a blanket 10–15% tariff on smaller countries.

New York Fed President John Williams noted:

• This year’s Trump tariffs have started to push inflation higher, with more impact likely in the months ahead.

• Williams is hesitant to support a rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting, citing tariff-driven inflation risks.

• “For items more exposed to higher tariffs, price increases so far this year have been well above what one would expect based on past trends.”

• “Maintaining this modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy is entirely appropriate to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals.”

Data was also light but noteworthy:

• Japan’s exports fell for a second consecutive month, with U.S. tariffs continuing to weigh on trade.

• Australia’s jobs report badly missed forecasts:

  • Employment rose by just 2,000 in June (vs. 20,000 expected).

  • The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% (vs. 4.1% expected), the highest since late 2021.

  • Markets quickly firmed up pricing for a widely expected RBA rate cut at the August meeting.

FX highlights:

• USD/JPY surged to around 148.50. Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Aoki voiced concern over speculative FX moves, but the yen barely rose off session lows. Indeed, USD/JPY is making a new session high around 148.60 as I update. Tariff and election uncertainty continues to pressure JPY.

• AUD/USD fell on the weak jobs data.

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