Forexlive European FX news wrap: Awaiting the NFP report
- What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
- ECB's Centeno: We successfully overcome inflationary process
- BoJ is said to consider smaller reductions to its bond buying
- Eurozone Q1 final GDP +0.6% vs +0.4% q/q second estimate
- Eurozone April retail sales +0.1% vs +0.1% m/m expected
- ECB's Rehn: Decision-making at each meeting remains key
- ECB's Holzmann: I dissented in this week's rate decision
- ECB's Stournaras: ECB has achieved a soft landing
- France April industrial production -1.4% vs +0.2% expected
- ECB's Simkus: Interest rates are now at neutral
- ECB's Kazaks: Markets should not expect cuts at every meeting
- Germany April industrial production -1.4% vs -1.0% m/m expected
- UK May Halifax house prices -0.4% vs -0.1% m/m expected
- ECB's Villeroy: We have won battle against inflation in Europe
- ECB's Muller: Agree with Lagarde that cycle almost finished
- Japan April leading economic index 103.4 vs 104.1 expected
It's been a relatively calm session in terms of news and data releases. The ECB members were out in full swing making victory laps on inflation and the soft landing. They didn't offer anything in terms of forward guidance though but at least one last rate cut remains the base case.
The most noteworthy news was the report from Bloomberg saying that the BoJ was to consider smaller reductions to its bond buying. This should be yen negative given that the BoJ would buy more bonds than previously expected under their bond tapering plan but the market hasn't reacted much to the news.
In the markets, there's some relative calm as traders await the US NFP report. US equities and bitcoin continued to recover the losses experienced late yesterday when the spat between Musk and Trump broke out.
Things got back to normal when we got the news overnight that Trump said to Politico in a brief call that things with Musk were going well and that the White House aides scheduled a call Friday with Musk to broker a peace. A White House source a couple of minutes before this wrap up told Reuters that there was no plan for a call between Trump and Musk.
In the American session, we have the Canadian Employment data and the US NFP report coming up. But watch out also for potential Musk-Trump headlines.