There appears to be enough momentum for Pound Sterling (GBP) vs US Dollar (USD) to rise further, but any advance is likely part of a higher 1.2480/1.2600 range.
The components of yesterday's US January PPI release which read over to the core PCE deflator came in quite benign yesterday, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.
Euro (EUR) vs US Dollar (USD) continued to trade higher on news that reciprocal tariffs does not comes into effect immediately but sometime in 1 Apr. The 6weeks+ push suggests that Trump may want to leverage on the threats to open up negotiations with some trade partners.
Outlook for Euro (EUR) vs US Dollar (USD) is positive, with a technical target of 1.0530. In the longer run, scope for EUR to test 1.0495; the major resistance at 1.0530 is unlikely to come under threat, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) gained modestly against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as further inflation data shows that prices in the United States (US) remain above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target.
The CHF CPI inflation fell -0.1% and +0.4% YoY. The US PPI rose 0.4% MoM and 3.5% YoY. However, the USDCHF moved lower. Buyers sticking a toe in the water.
While yesterday’s release of stronger than expected US CPI inflation pushed back on Fed rate cut hopes and initially boosted the value of the USD, those gains proved to be short-lived, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley notes.
EUR/CHF forms a series of higher peaks and troughs after defending the crucial graphical support of 0.9250/0.9210, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.
The oil market edged lower with ICE Brent trading below $75/bbl this morning following the reports that US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to start negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
US Dollar (USD) is likely to consolidate between 153.30 and 154.85. USD could continue to rise; overbought conditions suggest that any advance may not reach 155.80, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Outlook is unclear; New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a 0.5605/0.5675 range. In the longer run, for the time being, NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5595 and 0.5720, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
We maintain our view of a 25bps rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia at the 18 February meeting. A tight labour market presents downside risk to our view of 100bps of RBA rate cuts in 2025. Swaps are pricing c.22bps of RBA cuts in February, which should limit AUD weakness due to the cuts.
Austalian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade between 0.6250 and 0.6310. In the longer run, buildup in momentum is fading; a break below 0.6230 would mean that AUD is likely to trade in a range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
On a normal day in FX markets, yesterday's much-higher-than-expected US inflation print should have left the US Dollar (USD) stronger across the board and risk assets under pressure.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to trade in a range between 1.2390 and 1.2490. In the longer run, for the time being, GBP is likely to trade in a 1.2310/1.2550 range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Chance for Euro (EUR) to retest the 1.0430 level; it is unlikely to break above the major resistance at 1.0450. In the longer run, outlook remains unclear; price movements are likely to stay within a 1.0250/1.0450 range for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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