USDCAD: Bounces from key support but faces resistance hurdles ahead

The USDCAD has rebounded after finding firm support in the 1.3827–1.39499 zone, where multiple recent lows have formed a solid base. The pair has pushed back above the 100-hour moving average, currently near 1.3880, but bullish momentum has stalled, suggesting hesitation from buyers.

To build on this recovery, the pair needs to hold above the 100-hour MA and push toward the next upside targets:

• Swing area between 1.3923-1.2932

• Broken 61.8%retracement at 1.39465

• 200-day moving average at 1.4005

• 38.2% of the move down from the April 7 high at 1.40062

• 200-hour moving average at 1.40135

These resistance levels align closely and could act as a key decision area for traders. A break above would strengthen the bullish outlook and open the path toward the 50% retracement near 1.4061.

On the downside, a break below recent lows at 1.38278 would have traders looking toward the low price from November at 1.38171. Move below that level and the door for further downside momentum is opened (see post from yesterday for more information).

For now, price action is constructive off the lows, but confirmation through follow-through buying is critical to shift the broader bias.