Canada March CPI +2.3% y/y vs +2.6% expected

• Prior month 2.6%
• CPI m/m +0.3% versus +0.6% expected. Prior month +1.1%
• Core CPI m/m +0.1% versus +0.7% last month
• CPI y/y +2.3% versus 2.6% expected
• Core CPI y/y +2.2% versus 2.7% last month
• CPI Median y/y 2.9% versus 3.0% estimate. Last month 2.9%
• CPI Trim 2.8% versus 3.0% expected Last month 2.9%
• CPI Common 2.3% versus 2.5% last month

This is an important final data point ahead of Wednesday's Bank of Canada rate decision. Ahead of the data, the market was pricing in a 60% chance of a hold and a 40% chance of a cut to 2.50%.

Macklem signalled that they were going to be more-patient in cutting rates but this data point gives them the greenlight to cut or signal that a cut will be coming in June.