The trade war isn't over but the worst-case scenario is avoided

A common refrain in markets -- and here -- was that tariffs couldn't last because they were insane and would lead to a certain recession.

It seems there is at least something of a Trump put. The 'reciprocal but not really reciprocal' tariffs are gone and instead we got 10% across-the-board tariffs, which is roughly what we expected on 'Liberation Day'.

The difference is that the market was looking for something like 50% on China that day and now we're at 125%, which is a big problem for everything that comes from there (which is a lot). Now, yesterday Trump said he was waiting for China's call and the extra tariffs yesterday didn't apply to cargo on the water, so I would hope for some improvement there too.

The next question is: What happens to the 10% rates.

Bessent called those a 'floor' but it's not clear if that was a negotiating floor or a permanent one. If there are no deals to be made to get below that, then I don't know if we don't go back and test the lows at some point.

In any case, the moves in markets are insane right now with shorts getting blown out and the Nasdaq up 10% with the S&P 500 up 8%.