For what it is worth, the

  • US leading index for March fell -0.7% versus -0.5%.
  • Prior month -0.2% versus -0.3%
“The US LEI for March pointed to slowing economic activity ahead. March’s decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements: 1) consumer expectations dropped further, 2) stock prices recorded their largest monthly decline since September 2022, and 3) new orders in manufacturing softened. That said, the data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start. Still, the Conference Board downwardly revised our US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%, which is somewhat below the economy’s potential. The slower projected growth rate reflects the impact of deepening trade wars, which may result in higher inflation, supply chain disruptions, less investing and spending, and a weaker labor market.” - Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) – March 2025:

  • Increased by 0.1% to 114.4 (2016=100), following a 0.3% increase in February.

  • Rose 0.8% over the six months from September 2024 to March 2025, up from 0.7% in the previous six months.

  • The CEI includes four components:

    • Payroll employment

    • Personal income less transfer payments

    • Manufacturing and trade sales

    • Industrial production

  • Industrial production was the only negative contributor in March, marking its first decline since November 2024.

Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) – March 2025:

  • Decreased by 0.1% to 119.1 (2016=100), after a 0.3% increase in February.

  • Six-month growth remained positive at 0.7% (September 2024–March 2025), reversing a –0.7% decline in the prior six months (March–September 2024).

Source: Forex Live