Goldman Sachs lowers oil price forecasts on supply surplus outlook

Goldman Sachs has revised down its oil price forecasts, citing expectations of persistent supply surpluses and subdued demand growth.

• The bank now sees Brent crude averaging $63 per barrel and WTI at $59 for the remainder of 2025.
• For 2026, forecasts fall further to $58 for Brent and $55 for WTI.

The downward revision reflects Goldman’s outlook for large market surpluses, with the oil market expected to be oversupplied by 0.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 and 1.4 mb/d in 2026. These surpluses, the bank says, will continue to weigh on prices.

Global oil demand is projected to rise only modestly—by 0.3 mb/d in 2025 on a Q4-over-Q4 basis—adding to the pressure on prices amid robust supply.

The latest forecast comes as global energy markets adjust to slowing demand growth, rising production capacity, and evolving geopolitical dynamics.