Despite global equity market moves, EUR/JPY is diverging from its usual correlations, driven by a dollar sell-off and repatriation flows from Europe and Japan.
GBP/USD continues to benefit from broader dollar weakness and reserve diversification trends, with FX managers potentially trimming dollar holdings in favor of currencies like sterling. The pair also closely follows EUR/USD moves, as Europe embraces fiscal stimulus.
Dollar Index (DXY) inched modestly higher overnight but continues to trade near recent lows. Trump launched a probe into the need for tariffs on critical minerals, the latest action in an expanding trade war that has targeted key sectors of the global economy.
The Japanese Yen’s (JPY) solid current account and foreign asset position continue to pressure USD/JPY lower, even as the rare decoupling from US Treasury yields unfolds. While this divergence may prove short-lived, markets could settle into a lower USD/JPY as Fed cuts materialize later this year.
The Euro (EUR) is consolidating as markets digest tariff concerns and await the ECB meeting, where a 25bp rate cut is expected. While bullish momentum continues, dovish ECB rhetoric or pushback on recent euro strength could limit further gains.
The GBP/JPY cross attracts some sellers to around 188.80 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report.
The USD/CAD pair slips slightly after posting gains in the previous session, trading near 1.3940 during Wednesday’s Asian session. Technical analysis on the daily chart indicates a prevailing bearish trend as the pair continues to move lower within a descending channel.
Gold price ended Tuesday’s session on a higher note due to traders buying the precious metals amid uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's tariff plans, which has kept market participants on edge. The XAU/USD trades at $3,240 a troy ounce, gaining over 6.50%.
The Mexican Peso reversed its course and dropped against the US Dollar late in the North American session, with no catalyst behind the latter move as market participants digest Trump’s tariff rhetoric, which of late hinted at making exemptions on semiconductors and electronics.
The NZD/USD pair moved higher on Tuesday, seen trading near the 0.59 area ahead of the Asian session. The Kiwi continues to benefit from sustained buying interest, holding mid-range between the day’s lows and highs, and showing resilience despite broadly neutral oscillators.
The USD/JPY pair saw a slight rise on Tuesday, hovering around the 143 area as it edged higher within its daily range. The modest intraday rebound comes ahead of the Asian session but has yet to challenge the broader bearish signals dominating the chart.
USD/CAD hovered near the 1.4000 zone on Tuesday, consolidating after recovering from earlier lows around the 1.3850 region. The Canadian Dollar failed to gain traction despite a cooler-than-expected inflation report for March, while traders brace for the Bank of Canada’s policy decision.
The US Dollar (USD) gains limited ground on Tuesday as the US Dollar Index (DXY) is climbing back to the 100 region during North American trading hours. The index bounced from its recent three-year low amid oversold conditions, but sentiment remains fragile.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) rose and refreshed six-month highs against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as the financial markets' narrative remains linked to the US imposing tariffs. Cable shrugged off soft United Kingdom (UK) jobs data; hence, GBP/USD rallied 0.36% and is trading at 1.3233.
The EUR/USD pair eased slightly on Tuesday’s session after the European close, slipping from earlier intraday highs and hovering near the lower end of its daily range. Price action trades around the 1.13 zone, mildly lower on the day, though the broader technical bias continues to favor buyers.
EUR/GBP edged lower on Tuesday after the European session, retreating toward the bottom of its intraday range while holding just above key technical levels. The pair was last seen near the 0.8500 area, down modestly on the day, yet broader signals still point to underlying bullish strength.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is performing well on the day with a 0.4% gain vs. the US Dollar (USD) and outperformance against most of the G10 currencies as it pushed to fresh highs at levels last seen in October, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
US Dollar (USD) could edge higher vs Chinese Yuan (CNH), but any advance is unlikely to break above 7.3350. In the longer run, sharp but short-lived price action has resulted in a mixed outlook; USD is likely to trade between 7.2430 and 7.3700 for now.
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 142.70/144.55 range vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, USD could continue to decline, but given the deeply oversold conditions, it remains to be seen if 139.55 is within reach, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a range vs US Dollar (USD), likely between 0.6270 and 0.6350. In the longer run, AUD is likely to trade with an upward bias, potentially testing the key resistance at 0.6390, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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