USD dollar could rise if recession avoided

Commerbank says the US dollar could rise if the US avoids a recession:

• U.S. trade policy uncertainty is currently elevated due to Trump's back and forth on tariffs
• market is leaning towards the the risk of recession increasing significantly with each additional round of tit-for-tat tariffs, weighing on equities, Treasury yields and the USD

Hard U.S. economic data, however, is so far looking pretty decent - weak January retail sales excluded.

USD (DXY) update:

That 'end of USD uptrend' call from January played out OK. Whew!

• The steep up trend line for the USD appears to have been broken

• Updating the USD 'battle of the trendlines'