USD moves lower after tamer CPI data. What are the technicals saying.

The US CPI came out lower than expectations and that has helped to push the USD lower.

EURUSD: The EURUSD has extended above a swing area between 1.1089 to 1.1106 but has the highs from 2025 at 1.11448 as the next target. Staying above 1.1089 would keep the buyers in firm control, but getting above the high for the year (high going back to October 2024) would be needed to increase the bullish bias and have traders looking toward 1.1213 high for 2024.

USDJPY: The USDJPY is trading at a new low for the day, but importantly, it still holds above a key support zone between 144.45 and 144.56 — a swing area marked by prior reaction lows (highlighted by red circles on the chart). A break below that region would open the door for a test of the 2024 low at 143.99.

Price action in recent weeks has been choppy and directional moves have lacked lasting momentum. Despite this, the top of the recent range (the high of the red box) has remained consistently below the 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart. That technical ceiling has helped reinforce the bearish bias and kept sellers in control overall.

That said, the broader environment remains volatile, and the clear up-and-down swings may invite dip buyers near key support zones like 144.45–144.56. While sellers have the edge below the moving averages, the layered support beneath keeps the short-term picture mixed — especially for traders looking for low-risk long entries.

GBPUSD: The GBPUSD has seen both upside and downside breakouts in recent weeks on the 4-hour chart, but each move has met follow-through and then reversal, leaving price action increasingly rangebound. The pair is currently trading within a well-defined consolidation zone (the “Red Box”) between 1.28608 and 1.30139.

Today, the price moved back inside this range and attempted to push above the 100-bar moving average (currently at 1.29247), but is currently fluctuating above and below it. A firm break above would shift the focus to the next resistance levels — the swing area near 1.2988 and the March 20 high at 1.30139.

Conversely, failure to stay above the 100-bar MA keeps the pressure on the downside. In that case, traders will look for a move back toward the bottom of the range and key support at 1.28608.

In the bigger picture, GBPUSD remains stuck in consolidation mode. A sustained break outside of the Red Box — either above 1.30139 or below 1.28608 — is needed to tip the longer-term bias.