EURUSD could climb 5% if (big if) Russia Ukraine ceasefire is followed by gas supply boost

EUR/USD could rise as much as 5% if a Ukraine ceasefire is agreed followed by the resumption of gas supplies

• A potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine seems more likely.
• Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly agreed to start negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine.

• will depend on the details of any agreement
• resumption of lower-cost gas supplies, if at all, will likely be a smaller proportion compared to before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022

On the other hand:

• euro is at risk from US trade tariffs, and while the US economy remains strong
• “A ceasefire wouldn’t mean European’s structural problems will disappear.”