EUR/USD could rise as much as 5% if a Ukraine ceasefire is agreed followed by the resumption of gas supplies

  • A potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine seems more likely.
  • Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly agreed to start negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine.
  • will depend on the details of any agreement
  • resumption of lower-cost gas supplies, if at all, will likely be a smaller proportion compared to before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022

On the other hand:

  • euro is at risk from US trade tariffs, and while the US economy remains strong
  • “A ceasefire wouldn’t mean European’s structural problems will disappear.”
russia oil pipeline 02 May 2022
Source: Forex Live