Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 95 bps (63% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 80 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoE: 86 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 45 bps (56% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA: 125 bps (69% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 81 bps (96% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 27 bps (74% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

* for the RBA, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut.

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 7 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

We can see that from yesterday's update, when the sentiment was still more positive due to Trump's tariffs pause, rate cuts bets increased once again following another selloff in the stock market.

We have bets for a 50 bps cut for the RBA and some expectations for the SNB going back to negative rates to combat the huge appreciation in the Swiss Franc.

Source: Forex Live