Canadian election polls take a big turn as Mark Carney surges

Six weeks ago it was a foregone conclusion that the Conservatives would win the 2025 election (it's due in October or earlier) and Pierre Poilievre would become the next Prime Minister.

Then three big things happened:

1. Trudeau resigned
2. Mark Carney ran for leadership
3. Trump threatened Canadian sovereignty

Trudeau was way past his best-before date and widely disliked in Canada but this poll shows that presumptive Liberal leadership winner Mark Carney could get a fresh look. That shows that Canadians dislike Trudeau personally more than Liberal policies (though I'd argue they really dislike the immigration policy post-covid).

The other problem is that Poilevre wasn't hard enough on Trump and took a soft line. That wasn't what Canadians wanted to hear when they were blind-sided by Trump's talk of annexation.

It's all led to some real chaos and a Conservative Party that's searching for a message. Poilevre polls very well with men and has been trying to soften his image with women but, unfortunately for him, Carney is almost a perfect foil as he scores well with women voters.

I still think that Conservatives win a majority as Trump's attacks cool and Conservatives re-focus on domestic problems but it's much more uncertain than I thought. If polls continue in this direction and Liberals win, I expect a negative reaction in the loonie. That said, Carney is still a decided shift to the right from Trudeau and isn't someone that markets would be fearful of.

As for the timing of an election: Carney is riding high and he promised to call an election immediately if he wins the leadership race on March 9.