EURUSD Technical Analysis – Eyes on the US-Russia talks

Fundamental Overview

The US Dollar came under pressure last week following the US PPI report as the details that feed into the Core PCE index, which is what the Fed focuses on, were all very soft. That helped to bring the early estimates down to more benign levels. In fact, the Core PCE Y/Y is now projected to fall to 2.6% vs. 2.8% in the prior month. That’s good news for the Fed.

The bearish momentum increased eventually as the Trump’s tariffs saga came to an end. In fact, the US President announced his reciprocal tariffs that could go into effect in April but the overall tone of it wasn’t aggressive and sounded a lot like the start of a negotiating process to bring tariffs to a fair level for everyone.

On the EUR side, it’s been all about the US Dollar softness and with the markets now less concerned about tariffs, the major currencies got the green light to appreciate against the greenback.

Today, we have the US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia and positive headlines will likely be good for the risk sentiment and weigh further on the dollar. A peace deal will also be positive for the Eurozone economy all else being equal.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the EURUSD is now trading between the 1.0532 resistance and the 1.0452 support. The buyers will likely step in around the support to position for a rally into the 1.06 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break below the support to increase the bearish bets into the 1.0380 level next.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see the price testing the support as the market is likely awaiting the headlines on the US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia. If the price were to break lower, we can expect the sellers to pile in for a deeper pullback into the trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will likely lean on the trendline to position for a rally into the 1.06 handle with a better risk to reward setup.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a counter-trendline defining the current pullback. The sellers will continue to lean on it to push into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we have the US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the Eurozone and the US Flash PMIs.