Fed's Waller: Private sector is not doing as well as it seems

• Headline labor market numbers are 'ok'.
• It wouldn't take much to tip the labor market.
• Business executives say they are not hiring or firing.
• Will not commit to a dissent on interest rate vote ahead of the July meeting.
• Disagreement over monetary policy shows healthy debate.
• The debate is not about politics but about making an economic argument.
• It's important that dissents are made carefully.
• It's probably not critical if the Fed waits six more weeks to cut, but also no real reason to hold off.
• Tariffs are a tax. Like any tax, tariffs will be shared by different groups.
• I want to look at 3-month & 6-month inflation for tariffs.
• Some of the cost of tariffs will be passed along to consumers, but not in a way that causes persistent inflation.
• If there is a sequence of higher and higher tariffs there could be a rolling impact on prices.
• I want to make sure we don't have a hard landing.
• I'm not seeing longer-term inflation expectations go up.
• Without credibility, inflation expectations will spike.

Waller is the most dovish member this year, so his comments about cutting rates in July or focusing on downside risks don't get the same effect as they used to at the beginning.

He will likely be the only dissenter at the July meeting, although there's also a high chance that Bowman dissents as well. They are the only dovish members.