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ICYMI - 4 oil price forecasts, bleak scenario is up to US$130/bbl
Oil
I posted last week on
Many of these warned of what could play out in the case of escalation. Over the weekend we did incrementally escalate:
- BREAKING: U.S. Successfully Struck Iran Nuclear Sites
- What's Next after Iran Strikes?
- Monday open levels, indicative FX prices, 16 June 2025 - USD up after Trump bombs Iran
Since then:
- Globex gaps getting filled, some more than others - oil triple top break testing
- Trump's orders strike: Ayatollah gave Trump the middle finger ... that came with a price
- There is basically zero chance Iran will be able to close the Strait of Hormuz
- ANZ warn on Hormuz disruption, oil could rise to US$95 / bbl
Anyway, back to that "4 oil price forecasts" post, in brief:
- J.P. Morgan warned that if the conflict widened to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil could surge to $120–130.
- Goldman Sachs sees a $10/bbl geopolitical risk premium currently in prices
- Barclays sees $85 oil if Iranian exports are halved, and above $100 in a worst-case regional war
Brent update, still shy of filling the gap. The price is sitting on the break up from a triple top. Improtant level!
Source: Forex Live
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